HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 09 1999
 
DORA HAS A SMALL...WELL-DEFINED EYE 5-10 N MI IN DIAMETER WHICH
CLOSED AND THEN RE-APPEARED EARLIER THIS EVENING. ANIMATION OF
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUD PATTERN IS OSCILLATING BETWEEN
90 AND 102 KT DEPENDING ON SHORT TERM CHANGES IN THE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY ASYMMETRIC...WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE ADVISORY IS THE 12 HOUR MOTION OF
265/08...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A 270
DEGREE MOTION. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST. DORA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 14.5N 117.9W   100 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 14.5N 119.2W   105 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.6N 121.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 14.8N 122.8W   100 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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