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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 09 1999

DORA HAS A SMALL...WELL-DEFINED EYE 5-10 N MI IN DIAMETER.  IT IS A
STRONG T5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
NOW 95 KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG THE 27
DEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK
OVER THE AREA.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WOULD MAKE DORA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE PROBABLY BY LATE TONIGHT.

MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES
ARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE
BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF DORA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  SO...A CONTINUED MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. 
 
PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 14.4N 117.3W    95 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.3N 118.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.4N 120.7W   100 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.7N 122.7W   100 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W    90 KTS
 
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