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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 09 1999

AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY...AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE IT
APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER-ORGANIZED...DORA IS LIKELY TO REACH
CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH LATER TODAY.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE
INTENSITY LEVELLING OFF.  GIVEN OUR LACK OF SKILL IN PREDICTING
INTENSITY CHANGE...I KEEP THE WINDS AT A PLATEAU OF 100 KNOTS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE EYE MAY HAVE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
DUE WEST...260/09.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 120W/125W GRADUALLY
FILLING IN.  A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE IN PLACE TO THE
NORTH OF DORA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS MEANS THAT DORA
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.

PASCH 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 14.6N 116.4W    90 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N 117.9W   100 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 14.6N 120.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.7N 122.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 15.0N 124.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 128.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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