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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF
MOTION.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION 0F THIS GENERAL
MOTION EXCEPT THE SHALLOW BAM WHICH MOVES DORA SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE
UKMET MODEL WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE REST.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL
500 MB FORECAST SHOWS A A RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

A SYMMETRIC AND COLD CDO CONTINUES.  WITH A DVORAK T NUMBER OF 4.5
FROM TAFB...DORA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 65 KNOT WINDS.  THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 86 KNOTS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR WITH 85 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 15.6N 111.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 16.1N 113.3W    70 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.6N 115.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.8N 117.1W    80 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W    85 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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