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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER
WAS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS TO BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH FROM THE
PREVIOUS POSITION. IMPORTANT FOR ALL USERS PLOTTING POINT BY
POINT...IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT DORA MOVED NORTHWARD...IT IS MOVING
ABOUT 295/08. GLOBAL MODELS AVAILABLE AT NHC SUGGEST THAT THE
CURRENT WEAKENING IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INDUCE A SLOW MOTION
IN DORA IN THE SHORT TERM AND BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REBUILD...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.    

DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED A BIT BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.  WATER IS WARM AND SHEAR IS LOW AND
SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW INTENSIFICATION.  THEREFORE...
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 15.4N 108.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.8N 113.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.0N 115.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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