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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999
 
DORA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND IS
MAINTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE DERIVED
T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5/2.5/3.0 FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL/SAB/MIAMI. COMMENTS
SUGGEST CONSTRAINTS ON HIGHER T-NUMBERS... SO AM INCREASING INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS.  SHIFOR AND SHIPS INCREASE INTENSITY AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS PER 12 HOURS OUT TO 48 HOURS.  OFFICIAL FOLLOWS THIS TREND
AND MAKES THE STORM A HURRICANE IN 24-HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 285/15.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT GFDL IS NOW NEAR
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK DIRECTION BUT MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 13.8N 107.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 14.3N 109.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 14.8N 112.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W    75 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 15.5N 116.3W    85 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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