HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999

APPARENTLY THE SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION WAS STRONGER THAN THOUGHT
EARLIER...AS VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS 
A SHORT-TERM WESTERLY MOTION...WHILE LONGER TERM MOTION IS
NORTHWESTERLY. THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/9. MOST
NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH
MOTION IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN
THE SHEARED SYSTEM AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST. THIS
TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...AND HAS BEEN CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD
GRADUALLY COLDER WATER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO
SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN
MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST HERE...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 15.5N 130.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.9N 131.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.3N 133.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 16.7N 135.3W    25 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N 137.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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