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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 25 1999

THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REVEAL A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION.  THIS HAD ALSO BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE 2-CHANNEL IR
COMBINATION IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  A SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...BUT ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THIS IS SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME.  NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.

PREVIOUS CENTER FIXES ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST GUESS AT
INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION
MODELS AND MEDIUM- TO SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 15.7N 117.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 119.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.2N 121.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.9N 123.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.5N 128.5W    30 KTS
 
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