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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 24 1999
 
THE AREAL EXTEND OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS DIMISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALBEIT POORLY DEFINED...IS
NOW EXPOSED WITH ONLY MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION SEEN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CENTER. ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS
INDICATE 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE 
OF THE DEPRESSION COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM AS SUGGESTED BY CIMSS ANALYSES...NO STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST. THE FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATING AT 72 HOURS
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD HAPPEN SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 275/16 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS...SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMM.
 
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAVING CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE...
FUTURE ADVISORIES ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 14.2N 140.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.4N 142.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 14.6N 145.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.9N 149.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.2N 152.4W    30 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 15.5N 158.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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