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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 1999
 
BEATRIZ HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION INDICATING THAT A RAPID WEAKENING IS OCCURRING. BEATRIZ
IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME TROPICAL STORM GUSTS NORTH OF THE CENTER.   ALTHOUGH
DVORAK NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT BEATRIZ IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...WE
KNOW THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE CONSTRAINED BY RULES WHICH WERE NOT
DESIGNED FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEMS OVER EASTERN PACIFIC COOL WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/09.  BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL
MOTION STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTED BY BAM SHALLOW. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED LATER TODAY BUT...AS
USUAL...A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 19.8N 132.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 134.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N 136.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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