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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIAL MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED AS THE
WEAKENING STORM IS STEERED BY PROGRESSIVELY LOWER LEVEL STEERING. 
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  ONLY THE
LBAR..BAM...AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION.

GOES10 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE ARE NO CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -50C AS COLD SSTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE SYSTEM.  RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND SSM/I WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE US NAVY FNMOC
HOMEPAGE INDICATE THAT ALL WINDS ARE BELOW 30 KT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER WHERE THERE ARE NO WIND SPEED ESTIMATES.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40 KT EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN
48 HOURS OR LESS.

THE FNMOC WIND DATA IS ALSO THE BASIS FOR REDUCING THE 34-KT RADII
TO 75 NMI IN ALL QUADRANTS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 19.8N 132.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 133.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.2N 135.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.3N 137.5W    20 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.4N 139.0W    DISSIPATED
 
 
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