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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999
 
BEATRIZ HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 5.5...WITH LOWER DATA T
NUMBERS...BUT THE OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE COME UP A BIT THIS
EVENING.  AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. 
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP IN
THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
 
BEATRIZ HAS TURNED A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 295/10.  HIGH-DENSITY WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING ROUGHLY WITH THE SURROUNDING MID-
LEVEL FLOW...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE
OUTFLOW OF THE DISTURBANCE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MORE NORTHWARD TREND IS TEMPORARY...WITH
A RIDGE REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST OF BEATRIZ.  AS THE HURRICANE
WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...STEERING WILL PRESUMABLY BE DETERMINED
BY A SHALLOWER LAYER FLOW.  THIS REASONING WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A
RETURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OUT TO 36 HOURS...AND TO THE
LEFT AND FASTER BEYOND THAT.
 
FRANKLIN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 16.3N 124.5W   100 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 127.8W    80 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.2N 129.8W    70 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 132.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 135.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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