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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999

BEATRIZ REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A CLEAR-CUT 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE.  CURRENT DVORAK ANALYSES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...SO
THE WIND ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY CONTINUES AT 105 KNOTS.  THE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF ANY ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES TO CAUSE
WEAKENING AT THIS TIME.  LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE U. OF WISC. CIMSS
HOMEPAGE SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OUT THROUGH 132W LONGITUDE SOUTH
OF 20N.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLOW WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO SST COOLING TO 24-25 DEGREES C ALONG THE
PROJECTED TRACK.

THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...AVN...FORECAST INITIALIZED AT 06Z
SHOWS A VORTEX FORMING A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BEATRIZ.  THAT MODEL RUN ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL VORTICES FORMING
FARTHER NORTHEAST.  THE RESULT IS A LARGE ELLIPTICAL CIRCULATION
EXTENDING NEARLY 1000 N MI EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM BEATRIZ IN THE
2-3 DAY FORECAST.  THIS INFLUENCES THE AVN TRACK FORECAST OF THE
HURRICANE...SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION AND TURNING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SOUTHWARD.  THE BAM TRACKS ARE LIKELY ALSO ALTERED BY THESE
DEVELOPMENTS.  BECAUSE THE AVN RUN DOES NOT LOOK ENTIRELY
REALISTIC... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND BEATRIZ IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 14.8N 121.8W   105 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W   105 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W   100 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 127.3W    95 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W    75 KTS
 
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