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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 12 1999

THE CHANGES IN STORM STRUCTURE SEEN BEFORE THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BEATRIZ WERE APPARENTLY A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. CONVECTIVE TOPS
HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SO HAS A WELL-DEFINED 21
NM WIDE EYE. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE T5.5...SO BEATRIZ IS NOW A 100 KT MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE THE
OFFICAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF THE WINDS INCREASED BY 5-10 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/10. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LITTLE
CHANGED...WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 12Z GFDL RUN IS
CALLING FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THE 06Z RUN...ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION REMAINS LIKELY AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
THE OFFICAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH
OF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
BEVEN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 14.3N 119.8W   100 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 121.3W   100 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.8N 123.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.3N 125.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 127.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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