HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
BEATRIZ IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
BANDING FEATURES AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. BEATRIZ
IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK
T-NUMBER FROM TAFB INDICATES SO.  HOWEVER...SAB AND KGWC NUMBERS ARE
STILL 3.5 OR JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  NO SURPRISE IF AN EYE
WILL BECOME VISIBLE AT ANY TIME.  BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR STRENGTHEN
BEATRIZ FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING
THEREAFTER...PROBABLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER SST AHEAD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS BEATRIZ TO 75 KNOTS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.     

BEATRIZ IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL
ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER MEAN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST.  THEREFORE...BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION.     
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 14.4N 112.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 14.5N 113.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 118.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.0N 121.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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