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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999
 
BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ON A PLATEAU IN ITS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
PAST 6-HOURS.   THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
AT 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THUS...CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45
KNOTS.  DEVELOPMENT FACTORS OF SSTS AND OUTFLOW HAVE REMAINED
POSITIVE AND INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON
BEATRIZ REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE FORECAST MODELS AND ASSUMES THAT
WHATEVER IS CAUSING THE STORM TO PLATEAU IS TRANSIENT AND IS ABOUT
GONE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/14.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE GFDL MODEL...MOVE THE STORM IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 14.1N 108.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 14.5N 110.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 14.9N 113.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 15.2N 116.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 15.5N 119.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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