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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 09 1999
 
AFTER GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...BEATRIZ IS CATCHING
ITS BREATH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. 
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5 AND
3.0...RESPECTIVELY.  AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY ALSO HAS 2.5...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.  OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD
AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS BEATRIZ TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
WITHIN 36 H.  THE CIRCULATION IS STILL RATHER BROAD...AND SO THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS PULLED BACK JUST A LITTLE...WITH
BEATRIZ FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 H.

WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY WE NOW HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL
MOTION...WHICH IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 280/14.  THIS IS FASTER THAN
EARLIER ESTIMATES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL
NOW...AGREES ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE FORWARD SPEED
IS RELAXED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FRANKLIN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 13.4N 106.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 13.7N 108.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.2N 110.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.5N 113.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.0N 115.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 120.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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