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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 1999

ADRIAN IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAS BEEN DEVOID OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL SSTS AND
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION MAY PERSIST FOR
ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/03. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS QUITE
DIVERGENT THIS MORNING FROM THE GFDL FORECASTING A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION TO THE BAMD TAKING ADRIAN NORTH TO NEAR 29N
118W IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
BEVEN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 18.6N 113.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 18.6N 113.6W    25 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.6N 114.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED... 
 
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