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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN HAS
A BREAK BETWEEN 120-125 DEGREES WEST AND THE FORECAST IS FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE INITIAL HEADING WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION.  THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.
ONCE AGAIN THE INITIALIZATION OF THE AVIATION MODEL IS SUSPICIOUS 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE HURRICANE.

AN EYE HAS FORMED EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE A BIT WARM AND THIS
BRINGS THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE UP TO 85 KNOTS.  COOLER SSTS
ARE JUST AHEAD SO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS SHOULD END SHORTLY
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 18.3N 110.5W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.9N 111.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W    80 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 116.7W    50 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 22.4N 118.3W    30 KTS
 
 
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