HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 1999

ADRIAN HAS BECOME THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 1999 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL AGENCIES.  ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND A FEW BANDING FEATURES WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE FAIR.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER THAN NORMAL WATERS AND WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIFOR AND
SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS.  

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/13 AND THIS TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODELS
DIVERGE INDICATING SLOW...FAST...NORTHWEST... AND SOUTHWEST TRACKS.
THE MODELS WHICH DEPEND ON THE MEAN FLOW EXTRACTED FROM THE AVN ARE
LESS RELIABLE AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THE AVN IS INITIALIZING A STRONG-
NON EXISTENT VORTEX TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ADRIAN.  CONSEQUENTLY...A
NON-REALISTIC STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
PRODUCED.  HOWEVER...THIS LEFT BIAS IS LESS PRONOUNCED TONIGHT THAN
IN PREVIOUS RUNS.      

SHIP FNCM HAS CROSSED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADRIAN DURING THE
DAY.  LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED WEST WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND RISING
PRESSURE. WE WOULD LIKE TO OBTAIN THE LOG FROM THAT SHIP TO DOCUMENT
ITS PATH NEAR ADRIAN.
 
AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 16.9N 107.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W    70 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 111.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN