HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 1999
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NIGHT...AS A CONVECTIVE BAND WITH
TOPS TO -85C FORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0. THUS...
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. 

SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FIXES...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
270/07. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER MEXICO. THE AVN
AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL PERSIST...AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT
WEST...THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS START A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK A LITTLE TOO
SOON IF THE CURRENT MOTION IS CORRECT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LBAR.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR. THE AVN AND NOGAPS INDICATE THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SHIPS AND SHIFOR BOTH BRING THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...SHIPS DOING SO DESPITE
PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT SHEAR VALUES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS FAST AS SHIPS AND SHIFOR. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THE 00Z GFDL RUN DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION AT 36 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SO THAT
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE ONTO
THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO EASTWARD...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
 
BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 13.0N  98.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 13.0N  99.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 13.4N 101.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 13.9N 103.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N 110.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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