HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 15 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/09.  THE REASONING BEHIND THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.  AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE HURRICANE
MOSTLY EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONTINUED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION.
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
FOR A STRENGTHENING 971-MB HURRICANE AND THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT WELL
DEFINED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED INTO THE
HURRICANE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 15.0N  76.2W    85 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  74.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.6N  72.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 16.4N  69.3W    95 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N  67.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  62.0W    95 KTS
  
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