HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 14 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/05.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
CLOSELY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT BRINGS THE CENTER TO NEAR OR
JUST PAST PUERTO RICO IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1915Z AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS.
 
THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED REPORTED SO FAR FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 66 KNOTS AT 1000-1500 FEET FLIGHT LEVEL JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  BUT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 988 MB SO THE SURFACE
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY AND IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN 12 HOURS OR LESS...BASED ON THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE TYPE FEATURE.  THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 16.4N  78.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  78.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  76.4W    70 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.6N  74.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N  71.2W    70 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N  65.5W    70 KTS
  
NNNN