HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LENNY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 PM EST SUN NOV 14 1999

A RECON AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED 66 KNOTS AT 1000 FT ALTITUDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 992 MB. 
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS.  IT IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE AN EYE FORMING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THIS IS ALSO REPORTED
FROM THE AIRCRAFT.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SAME REASONING AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...MOVING TOWARD THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THE
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION BEING MOVED FURTHER NORTH.

THE PROXIMITY TO JAMAICA REQUIRES TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT COUNTRY.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1915Z 16.4N  79.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  78.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  76.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N  74.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N  71.3W    65 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  65.5W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN