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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999

...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION...
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT 
THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS STILL INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN
PENINSULA JUST SOUTH OF MERIDA...WHICH RECENTLY REPORTED A LIGHT
EAST-NORTHEAST WIND.  PROGRESSO...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MERIDA...
REPORTED A LIGHT EAST WIND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/4 KT.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 20 KT.  KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT FAST-APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. 
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST...THEN NORTHEAST MOTION
THROUGH 24 HOURS.  DISSIPATION/ABSORPTION OF KATRINA BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
OCCUR SOONER...MUCH SOONER. 
 
THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. 

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 20.8N  89.5W    20 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 21.7N  88.5W    25 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 22.6N  86.2W    25 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 23.5N  83.5W...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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