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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN OCT 31 1999
 
THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BELIZE AND MEXICO SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE LATEST 0600 UTC
POSITION INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING MUCH FASTER AND THIS
MAY BE A RESULT OF THE RELOCATION PROCESS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW INCREASED TO 340/15.  WITH THIS
FASTER INITIAL MOTION THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY MOVES THE SYSTEM
FASTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS THE BAMS WHICH
TAKES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  ALSO THE
UKMET WANTS TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN AFTER 24 HOURS.
THE VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALLS ANYWHERE IN FLORIDA FROM THE
PANHANDLE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT...OF COURSE...MUCH FASTER.  IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST COMES TO FRUITION THAN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED EITHER LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW FOR SOME PORTION OF
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUGGEST THAT KATRINA IS A WEAK
DEPRESSION WITH 25 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.
IN LIGHT OF THE FASTER FORWARD MOTION THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MODEST
STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN AS PER THE SHIPS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BRFORE IT MERGES WITH THE
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 18.9N  88.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 21.1N  89.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     01/0600Z 24.1N  89.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 26.9N  87.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 29.4N  84.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  78.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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