HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999
 
KATRINA HAS PULLED A HALLOWEEN TRICK. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON INDICATED THE CIRCULATION WAS
ELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHERN NICARAGUA. OBSERVATIONS FROM LA CEIBA AND ROATAN IN
HONDURAS HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...INDICATING THE
CENTER HAS RE-FORMED OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS REQUIRES A RE-
LOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
WITH THE REFORMATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AT BEST A GUESS AND IS
SET TO 305/9. THE HURRICANE GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT...WITH THE
BAMS TAKING KATRINA TO THE PACIFIC IN 72 HOURS AND THE BAMD TAKING
IT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF
STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST BY ALL LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE...AND
THIS SHOULD RECURVE KATRINA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECT THIS...AND IS SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE 72 HOUR POINT
MAY NOT BE FAR ENOUGH EAST...BUT THERE IS ALREADY SO A LARGE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THAT I AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE IT FURTHER.
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT AND 25 KT
RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. SINCE SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR REMAINS...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST
IS COMPLEX. THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT APPEARS RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...IT WOULD LIKELY ABSORB KATRINA. THE
CYCLONE COULD ALSO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT KATRINA COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT LEAVES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR
KATRINA TO SURVIVE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
A SPECIAL THANKS GOES TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF HONDURAS FOR
SENDING VALUABLE OBSERVATIONS VIA FAX AFTER NORMAL COMMUNICATIONS
HAD BROKEN DOWN.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 16.9N  87.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.9N  88.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.4N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.2N  88.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.5N  87.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 28.0N  84.0W    30 KTS
 
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