HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999
 
THE CIRCULATION OF KATRINA IS BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND CONSEQUENTLY...HAS BECOME VERY
DIFFUSE.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION
HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST/SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND IN FACT...
THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTERS. AS A COMPROMISE...I HAVE CHOSEN 
TO USE A CENTRAL POINT ALONG THE AXIS AS THE CENTER.  USING THIS
POSITION...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/07 KNOTS.

AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER...MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS DIVERGENT. THE UKMET...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...NOW DISSIPATES KATRINA BY 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS
THE SYSTEM OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...MOVES IT INTO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS BY 24 HOURS...INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN 36 HOURS...WITH 
A 72 HOUR POINT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS
CONTINGENT ON THE SYSTEM SURVIVING ITS TREK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HONDURAS. 

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER ALTHOUGH CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
THAT THE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE BY 24 HOURS
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO RE-ORGANIZE. THEREAFTER...THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASING HOSTILE DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER-LOW...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...LIFTING OUT INTO 
THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

THE FORECAST CONTINUES A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEIR IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS MUCH LESS 72. GIVEN THE SYSTEMS LOCATION 
AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT A CENTER COULD RE-LOCATE/RE-FORM OUT 
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WE WILL HOLD ON TO IT FOR NOW.  
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY IN
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHERE RAINBANDS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING ONSHORE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES..ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 14.9N  85.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     31/0600Z 15.5N  86.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N  87.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     02/1800Z 23.5N  88.0W    30 KTS
 
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