HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999
 
THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME IR IMAGERY...BUT
IT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTINUED ON TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 310/9.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT.  THE UKMET...
WHICH HAS DONE THE BEST JOB WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...TAKES
KATRINA NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
U.S.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TRACK...BUT WITH A
SPEED THAT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA WEST OF THE CENTER.
WITH THE CENTER NOW OVER LAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30
KNOTS...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IF THE
DEPRESSION SURVIVES ITS TRAVERSE OVER LAND...THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT
WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
...THEN INLAND AGAIN AND WEAKENING OVER THE YUCATAN AND IF THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...FOR THOSE COUNTRIES WHICH THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER... AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 14.5N  84.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.3N  85.7W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/0600Z 16.6N  87.1W    30 KTS...GULF OF HONDURAS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.4N  87.9W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.9N  88.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     02/0600Z 22.5N  88.5W    30 KTS...GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
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