HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999
 
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z OBSERVATION FROM SAN
ANDRES ISLAND WHICH REPORTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  THUS...THE
CENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.
AN EXTENDED SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING
ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/08 KNOTS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION 
IS EXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.

THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...ALONG WITH NOGAPS AND THE UK METEOROLOGICAL
OFFICE MODELS...SHOW THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DRIFTING
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS IN A
SHEARED...WEAKENED STATE AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS AN UNKNOWN.  IN
FACT...A BANDING FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE CENTER...NEAR
15N...AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  THE FORECAST
STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. 

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE 
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE.  THE NHC TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UK MET OFFICE TRACK...AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM EMERGES
INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY 48 HOURS AND MAY RE-INTENSIFY...WHICH 
IS WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM
COULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND.  

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS 
SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE
GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS AND FOR THE SAN ANDRES ISLANDS WILL BE
DISCONTINUED.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. 

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 13.0N  82.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 13.7N  83.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.4N  84.1W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.0N  85.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.0N  86.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 17.5N  87.5W    30 KTS

NNNN