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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 1999
 
A TRMM OVERPASS FROM THE NRL HOMEPAGE AT 0517Z SHOWED THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER OF JOSE WAS BETTER ENGAGED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING...AND INDEED THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS UP TO 65 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  SSTS SHOULD BE DECREASING
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SO NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. JOSE WILL
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE MAJOR TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET GUIDANCE.  SOME
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TURN JOSE INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.  

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 28.9N  61.8W    60 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 32.3N  60.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 38.5N  56.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 47.0N  50.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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