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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999
 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REGENERATE OVER THE CENTER.  THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS SHEARED BUT A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN
EARLIER TODAY.  JOSE COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF THE SHEAR DECREASES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/10.  THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH STEERING TO MOVE JOSE NORTH
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS AN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.  ALTHOUGH JOSE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA....INTERESTS IN THAT ISLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.
 
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 21.2N  65.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N  65.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 26.0N  64.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 32.0N  61.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 40.0N  55.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     25/1800Z 51.0N  44.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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