HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 21 1999
 
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS INDICATE THAT JOSE IS WEAKENING UNDER RELENTLESS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 992...UP 11
MB SINCE 13Z YESTERDAY...AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECORDED
BY THE AIRCRAFT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 65 KT.  THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE
TEMPERATURES OF WHICH HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT...AND IT IS IN FACT
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXIST AT
THE SURFACE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS SOME MODEST
AND BRIEF REINTENSIFICATION.

JOSE IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/12.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 24 HRS.  THEREAFTER...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BENDS TO NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATES AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT JOSE WILL BE CLOSE TO
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
SO JOSE MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 18.5N  64.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N  65.9W    65 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 21.4N  67.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 23.8N  67.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 28.0N  67.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 41.0N  61.0W    60 KTS
 
 
NNNN