HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
 
THE LAST RECON FIX WAS AT 2251Z...AND DID NOT SHOW ANY
INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...USING A CURVED BAND
PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
45 KNOTS.  SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM...CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE NAVY VERSION OF THE GFDL MODEL AND
THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY MESOSCALE MODEL BOTH SHOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL.  JOSE SHOULD BE
NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO.
 
SATELLITE-DERIVED POSITION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AIRCRAFT ONES.  MY LOCATION AND MOTION ESTIMATES ARE BIASED MORE
TOWARD THE RECON BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.  CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORM TO MOVE MORE
TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF 20N 60W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE COULD TURN THE STORM MORE
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  MY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...BUT
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION SUITE.
 
ADDITIONAL WATCHES FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 13.2N  56.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 13.9N  58.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 15.1N  60.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.2N  62.2W    70 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.3N  64.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.5N  67.5W    85 KTS
 
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