HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
 
...CORRECTED WIND SPEED TO 40 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOSE
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND PEAK WINDS OF
52 KT AT 1500 FT.  THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS
FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE IR PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.  THE MOST RECENT
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BRING JOSE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS.  

THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER OF JOSE TO BE NORTH OF PREVIOUS
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  MUCH OF THIS NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT IS
BELIEVED TO BE A REORGANIZATION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/10...A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED BUT THE TRACK IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TO CORRECT
FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.  THE 72 HOUR POSITION IS ON THE LEFT HALF
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET.

A SLEW OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH THIS PACKAGE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 12.4N  55.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 13.0N  57.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 13.9N  58.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 14.9N  60.8W    65 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N  63.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N  66.5W    80 KTS
 
 
NNNN