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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/42.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IRENE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD AT NEAR 50 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND A
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND IRENE IS KEPT TROPICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE HURRICANE
IS MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
SHORTLY.  IN FACT THE WIND FIELD AS SHOWN IN OUR FORECAST/ADVISORY
IS QUITE LARGE AND SOME OF THESE STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE MODELS SHOW IRENE TRANSFORMING INTO A LARGE
AND INTENSE LOW OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD CONTINUE FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. 
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 40.6N  64.8W    85 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 45.0N  55.5W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     19/1800Z 50.0N  43.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     20/0600Z 51.5N  36.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     20/1800Z 51.5N  31.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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