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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/35.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL AS
WELL AS OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS IRENE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD
IN A FLOW OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW IRENE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND
TRANSFORMING INTO A HUGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATOPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
 
ALTHOUGH IRENE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
...THERE IS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 
THE WIND SPEED IS ASSUMED TO BE NEAR 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PERSISTENCE FROM SIX HOURS AGO.  AS IRENE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...IT COULD RETAIN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES NORHTEAST TO EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
 
LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 37.8N  69.9W    90 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  63.0W    80 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 46.0N  50.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     20/0000Z 50.0N  37.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     20/1200Z 51.0N  30.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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