HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999
 
...CORRECTION TO INDICATE THAT THE 48 HOUR POSITION IS NOT INLAND...

RECONNAISSANCE FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE KEY WEST RADAR
INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING AT AN AVERAGE TRACK OF 020/7
OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS.  SUPERIMPOSED ON THIS MEAN MOTION HAVE
BEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF STATIONARITY AND ABRUPT JUMPS.  WITH THIS
CONTINUED NET NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.  ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE PATH OF
IRENE ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOONER...WITHIN 12-18 HOURS.  LONGER
TERM...A MAJOR TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES AND ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD CLOSE TO THE COASTS
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

A RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORT OF 74 KNOTS AT 850 MB SUPPORTS AN
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS.  HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE DEPICTION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...AND A BIT
OF OUTFLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  SOME
STRENTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE POOR
ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS SEEMS UNLIKELY.  IF THE HURRICANE TAKES ANOTHER JOG TO THE
NORTH HOWEVER...THIS WOULD DELAY LANDFALL AND ALLOW ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. 
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 24.7N  81.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.7N  81.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 27.2N  81.3W    60 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     17/0000Z 29.2N  81.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     17/1200Z 32.0N  80.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 37.5N  77.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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