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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 1999
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SWIRL...BUT WITH A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...IT HAS
BOUGHT ITSELF AT LEAST ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OF EXISTENCE.  THE
DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. 
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO LESSEN...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE DEPRESSION.  IN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS A HEALTHY OUTFLOW THAT MAY KEEP SHEAR VALUES HIGH. 
THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.

THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS STATIONARY.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEPRESSION MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
ASSUMING SHALLOW LAYER STEERING...AND RESUMES A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION AFTER 12 HOURS.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 16.4N  47.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.4N  47.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.7N  48.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N  49.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N  50.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N  53.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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