HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 1999
 
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. THE CYCLONE REMAINS A BROAD
CIRCULATION AT THE SOUTHWEST END OF A TROUGH LYING NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE SHOULD
SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....WHICH MAY
ALLOW A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW
FAST THE RIDGE WILL MOVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS CURRENTLY ARE PROXIMITY
TO LAND AND MUCH OF THE WOULD BE INFLOW BYPASSING THE DEPRESSION FOR
THE GULF TROUGH. BY 48 HOURS THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS ITS UPPER
SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER FROM THE COAST. BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SOME
MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS.
 
RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPORTANT WEATHER FACTOR WITH SEVERAL LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 19.5N  94.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.7N  94.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.9N  95.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 20.3N  95.2W    30 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N  95.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  95.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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