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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 04 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003
MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 15 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CIRCULATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THE 44 KT IS DUE TO FUNNELING
ALONG THE COAST OR DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS BETTER
ORGANIZED IN BOTH WINDS AND CONVECTION THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IF THIS IS THE SAME CENTER
SEEN 24 HR AGO...THE MOTION IS 225/04. SINCE THAT IS NOT CERTAIN...
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO STATIONARY. LITTLE MOTION IS LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENOUGH
RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO ALLOW A
WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT. THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND AND MOST OF THE INFLOW BYPASSING THE DEPRESSION
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER DRIFTS
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

 
BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 18.8N  93.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.8N  94.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.8N  94.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 18.9N  94.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 19.5N  95.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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