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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999

RECONNAISSANCE FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS INDICATE THAT HARVEY IS MOVING
080/9 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL MOTION. THE LAST RECON FIX 
ALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT HARVEY MAYBE MOVING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST.  THE APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL
EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 12 HRS WITH A NORTHEAST TURN THEREAFTER  
WITH INCREASING SPEED.  THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND THE UKMET.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
THE STORM IS PROBABLY ALSO ENTRAINING SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS WELL.  DATA FROM THE DOPPLER RADAR IN TAMPA SUGGESTS
THAT MID-LEVEL CENTER IS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE 
IN STRENGTH...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED BY 48 HRS...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR SOONER.  
 
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A SHIP REPORT AND WIND
ANALYSES FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO BOCA RATON.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BOCA RATON TO FLORIDA CITY. IF THE TRACK
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 27.1N  84.2W    50 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 27.3N  82.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 28.4N  78.7W    55 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 31.5N  74.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 36.0N  68.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/0000Z 43.5N  59.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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