HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HAS
CONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE
PRESSURE OF 1002 MB.  BASED ON THE EARLIER SHIP OB OF 1004 THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL BE 1003 MB. THE LATEST INITIAL POSITION
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS EARLIER
CALCULATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/03.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WHICH IS.. A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.
 
SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LLCC THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP.  RECON SHOWS MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ABOUT 15 KTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER AND WILL
PROBABLY PICK UP 25 TO 30 KTS ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE SIMILAR TO
THE SURFACE OBS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT WINDS.  AT THIS TIME THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION.
 
UNTIL THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETS BETTER ORGANIZED THE STORM
WATCHES MAY BE NOT BE REQUIRED UNTIL TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...RESIDENTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 26.1N  87.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 26.6N  87.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 27.4N  86.8W    35 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 28.1N  85.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 29.5N  82.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 33.0N  74.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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