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TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 1999

THE CENTER OF GERT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BUT CANADIAN BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GERT IS
BASICALLY ON THE TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...AS SUGGESTED BY A LATE REPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
BUOY AT 44.3N/53.6W.  INITIAL MOTION IS 030/24.  GERT WILL PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.  THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW LESS THAN
HURRICANE STRENGTH AND GERT IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  BUOY
OBS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF 60 KT.  WITH
NO CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER...GERT WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL VERY SHORTLY.

STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE
MARITIME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... PLEASE REFER TO
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CANADA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER
HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL THIS EVENING RELAYING BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 45.7N  53.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 48.7N  50.9W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     24/0600Z 53.6N  48.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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