HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999

CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT GERT IS ACQUIRING A SLIGHT EASTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION AND THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING.  GERT IS NEARING ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO
BERMUDA...AND WARNINGS THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS MOSTLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GUIDANCE.  GERT SHOULD BE AT FAIRLY HIGH
LATITUDES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...AND LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

LATEST AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE EYEWALL IS WEAKENING.
A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH THIS STRONG
CYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO SPIN DOWN.  

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 31.7N  62.5W    95 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 33.8N  62.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 36.5N  61.0W    85 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 40.0N  58.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 45.0N  54.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 56.0N  46.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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