HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
 
INITIAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOWS A MORE RAGGED
STRUCTURE THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING.  THE EYE IS LESS WELL-
DEFINED AND THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT AS EXTENSIVE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT AND THIS IS PERHAPS GENEROUS.
SSTS ARE STILL WARM UNDER THE HURRICANE BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
DRY AIR ENTERING THE INNER CORE FROM THE WEST SIDE.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODEL INDICATES WEAKENING THAT RESULTS FROM
INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH...WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE MID-TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  

ALL GUIDANCE RECURVES GERT EAST OF BERMUDA AND ON THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THESE
ISLANDS.  THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUE
FOR BERMUDA.  IF GERT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST THE HURRICANE WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...
AND COULD PROMPT THE POSTING OF HURRICANE WARNINGS.  ALL INTERESTS
IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
HURRICANE.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 27.3N  61.8W   110 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 28.7N  62.8W   105 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 30.5N  63.2W   100 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 32.8N  62.9W    95 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  61.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 42.0N  57.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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