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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999
 
GERT REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE THIS EVENING WITH A 25 NMI
DIAMETER EYE AND A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING 
IT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD OR EXTENSIVE 
AS THEY WERE 24 HRS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 
115 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS THAT OF THE OBJECTIVE-BASED
TECHNIQUE. GERT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS.  BEYOND THIS POINT...WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS 
THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. IN FACT...GERT MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. GERT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HRS THROUGH
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO 
A LARGE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
BERMUDA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A SHORT DELAY IN THE 
NORTHWARD TURN WOULD BRING GERT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...
AND COULD PROMPT THE POSTING OF HURRICANE WARNINGS.  

ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

GUINEY

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 26.5N  61.1W   115 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 27.6N  62.1W   115 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 29.3N  62.8W   110 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  62.8W   105 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 34.0N  62.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 40.0N  59.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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