HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999
 
SATELLITE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE CONSENSUS 5.5...100
KT.  THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER. 
LACKING ANY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS TO THE CONTRARY...GERT BECOMES THE
FOURTH MAJOR...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...HURRICANE OF THE 1999 SEASON.  OUTFLOW LOOKS OUTSTANDING IN
ALL QUADS AND SSTS ARE VERY WARM.  GERT HAS AN EXCELLENT CHANCE TO
REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS SOME SOUTHERLY
SHEAR...SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO UPPER
LOWS AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13.  RIDGING NORTH OF GERT LOOKS SOLID FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...THE MAIN LOBE OF THE RIDGE
RETREATS EASTWARD AS FLOYD INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 60
WEST MAY ALSO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE TRACK.  THE PRIMIARY GUIDANCE
MODELS TAKE GERT ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY PATH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WOULD LESSEN THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHLTY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY FLYING IN THE ENVIRONMENTS OF
HURRICANES FLOYD AND GERT TO PROVIDE ENHANCED SOUNDING COVERAGE FOR
THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 17.2N  46.5W   100 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.6N  48.6W   105 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N  51.0W   110 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N  53.4W   115 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N  56.0W   115 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N  60.5W   115 KTS
 
 
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