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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

THE MOST RECENT DATA RELAYED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES
THE EYE IS ELLIPTICAL...A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 935 MB AND A
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT A NEW EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY...BUT SINCE FLOYD IS LIKELY TO CROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
STREAM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
THE LATEST RECON FIXES SHOW THAT FLOYD IS NOW MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING A BIT FASTER...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE NOW 335/13 KT.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL IMPART A MORE NORTHERLY HEADING LATER TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHWARD 
OVER THE NORTH PLAINS WILL TURN...AND ACCELERATE...THE HURRICANE
ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHEAST TRACK BY 36 HRS. 
THUS THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST...THEN NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS...BUT A LITTLE
FASTER...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...AND COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL
NWS OFFICES...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM
CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELWARE.  

THE NOAA BUOY 41010 REACHED A PEAK WIND OF 70 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 85
KT...AND SEAS TO 54 FT.  THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY LOW GIVEN THE HIGH
SEA STATES. THE BUOY IS NOW IN THE EYE AND THE PRESSURE IS 938.8 MB.
THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION FROM DAYTONA BEACH INDICATES 35 KT
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 52 KT.  WIND DATA FROM THE NWS MELBOURNE
WSR-WIND 88D RADAR INDICATES 64 KT WINDS AOB 1500 FT.  THE HURRICANE
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

THE NOAA BUOY AT GRAYS REEF OFF THE GEORGIA IS ALREADY REPORTING
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHILE NOAA BUOY 41004 NEAR
EDISTO SOUTH CAROLINA IS REPORTING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
AND SEAS TO 23 FT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 28.8N  78.8W   120 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 30.5N  79.2W   120 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 33.2N  79.1W   120 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 36.3N  78.0W    65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     17/0600Z 40.0N  75.0W    55 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     18/0600Z 47.5N  67.0W    45 KTS...INLAND
 
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