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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999
 
LATEST FIXES SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 325 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A MORE NORTHWARD
STEERING CURRENT AND EVENTUALLY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FLOW...ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THUS THE FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH TIME.  THIS IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE
TRACK PREDICTIONS.  AS USUAL...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING
OF THE TURNS...AND TO THE LANDFALL POINT.  IN ANY EVENT DUE TO THE
LARGE SIZE OF THIS HURRICANE AND THE PREDICTED ACCELERATION...THE
HURRICANE WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AT THIS TIME.

FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AGO SUPPORT THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS.  FLOYD APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH LED TO A LARGE 50 N MI DIAMETER
EYE.  RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A NEW EYEWALL MAY BE
TRYING TO FORM INSIDE OF THIS.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY...BUT SINCE FLOYD IS LIKELY TO CROSS SECTIONS OF THE GULF
STREAM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT SHOULD MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS
INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
 
PASCH
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 27.7N  77.9W   120 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 29.0N  79.0W   120 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 31.2N  79.2W   120 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 34.3N  78.7W   110 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     17/0000Z 38.0N  77.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     18/0000Z 45.0N  70.0W    45 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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